Systemic Fragility In The Indonesian Textile Industry: A Vuca-Based Analysis Of Corporate Collapse

Abstract

The Indonesian textile industry has entered a period of unprecedented disruption, marked by widespread factory closures, mass layoffs, and a sharp decline in production capacity between 2022 and 2024. This study aims to analyze the structural vulnerabilities of major textile firms in Indonesia by employing the Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity (VUCA) framework. Specifically, the research investigates how global shocks and domestic weaknesses interacted to accelerate the collapse of five leading corporations: Sritex Group, Asia Pacific Fiber, Agungtex, Kusuma Group, and Chingluh Indonesia. The study applied a qualitative exploratory design with thematic analysis of secondary data, including industry reports, international trade statistics, academic literature, and credible news sources. Data were coded according to the four VUCA dimensions and synthesized to identify recurring patterns of vulnerability. The findings reveal that volatility in raw material prices and exchange rates significantly raised production costs, while regulatory inconsistency and market unpredictability deepened uncertainty. Supply chain fragmentation and multi-stakeholder dynamics exacerbated complexity, and the absence of clear policy direction created ambiguity in strategic decision-making. The interaction of these factors produced systemic fragility, with large firms unable to withstand shocks despite their scale and market experience. This study extends the application of the VUCA framework to the context of large corporations in developing economies, highlighting how external disruptions intersect with weak domestic preparedness to produce industrial decline. The results confirm that resilience cannot be built by addressing individual dimensions of VUCA in isolation but requires integrated strategies that link corporate adaptation with coherent policy support. At the policy level, a national textile roadmap, regulatory stability, fiscal incentives, and upstream industry strengthening are essential. The study concludes by suggesting future research on longitudinal resilience strategies, development of a VUCA-based industrial risk index, and comparative analyses with other textile-exporting nations.